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SOLD OUT: Heathrow tells airlines to stop selling ANY flights until 11th September

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The Summer air travel situation took a surprising turn on Tuesday when Heathrow effectively stopped airlines from selling any further seats for flights this Summer.

In an open letter, Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said that the airport had realised that it was, effectively, no longer possible for it to offer the level of service it wanted this Summer and that something had to give.

This is especially true for ground handling staff – albeit these are not employed by the airport – which are still chronically below the number required.

Kaye’s solution is to cap Heathrow passenger numbers at 100,000 per day for the Summer period, which they are specifying as ending on 11th September.

This would be fine, except that airlines have already sold an average of 101,500 tickets per day and seats are still on sale.

Effectively immediately, Heathrow has requested:

  • the closure for sale of all flights departing from the airport until 11th September
  • a reduction in the expected passenger numbers from 101,500 to 100,000 per day

Whilst airlines are not legally bound to follow this, Heathrow will respond by forcing airlines to cancel additional flights if they do not do so.

One way or another, only 100,000 people per day are flying from the airport this Summer.

Whilst not discussed in this letter, the airport is also believed to be considering restrictions on checked luggage and, as it did yesterday for same-day rebooking, banning airlines from rebooking passengers whose flights are cancelled, since this does not nothing to reduce passenger numbers in total.

Heathrow tells BA (and other airlines) to stop selling tickets for the Summer period

Here is the full statement:

The global aviation industry is recovering from the pandemic, but the legacy of COVID continues to pose challenges for the entire sector as it rebuilds capacity.  At Heathrow, we have seen 40 years of passenger growth in just four months. Despite this, we managed to get the vast majority of passengers away smoothly on their journeys through the Easter and half term peaks. This was only possible because of close collaboration and planning with our airport partners including airlines, airline ground handlers and Border Force.   

We started recruiting back in November last year in anticipation of capacity recovering this summer, and by the end of July, we will have as many people working in security as we had pre-pandemic. We have also reopened and moved 25 airlines into Terminal 4 to provide more space for passengers and grown our passenger service team.    

New colleagues are learning fast but are not yet up to full speed. However, there are some critical functions in the airport which are still significantly under resourced, in particular ground handlers, who are contracted by airlines to provide check-in staff, load and unload bags and turnaround aircraft. They are doing the very best they can with the resources available and we are giving them as much support possible, but this is a significant constraint to the airport’s overall capacity. 

However, over the past few weeks, as departing passenger numbers have regularly exceeded 100,000 a day, we have started to see periods when service drops to a level that is not acceptable: long queue times, delays for passengers requiring assistance, bags not travelling with passengers or arriving late, low punctuality and last-minute cancellations. This is due to a combination of reduced arrivals punctuality (as a result of delays at other airports and in European airspace) and increased passenger numbers starting to exceed the combined capacity of airlines, airline ground handlers and the airport.  Our colleagues are going above and beyond to get as many passengers away as possible, but we cannot put them at risk for their own safety and wellbeing.   

Last month, the DfT and CAA wrote to the sector asking us all to review our plans for the summer and ensure we were prepared to manage expected passenger levels safely and minimise further disruption. Ministers subsequently implemented a slot amnesty programme to encourage airlines to remove flights from their schedules with no penalty. We held off putting additional controls on passenger numbers until this amnesty process concluded last Friday and we had a clearer view of the reductions that airlines have made.    

Some airlines have taken significant action, but others have not, and we believe that further action is needed now to ensure passengers have a safe and reliable journey.  We have therefore made the difficult decision to introduce a capacity cap with effect from 12 July to 11 September. Similar measures to control passenger demand have been implemented at other airports both in the UK and around the world.  

“Our assessment is that the maximum number of daily departing passengers that airlines, airline ground handlers and the airport can collectively serve over the summer is no more than 100,000. The latest forecasts indicate that even despite the amnesty, daily departing seats over the summer will average 104,000 – giving a daily excess of 4,000 seats. On average only about 1,500 of these 4,000 daily seats have currently been sold to passengers, and so we are asking our airline partners to stop selling summer tickets to limit the impact on passengers.   

“By making this intervention now, our objective is to protect flights for the vast majority of passengers at Heathrow this summer and to give confidence that everyone who does travel through the airport will have a safe and reliable journey and arrive at their destination with their bags. We recognise that this will mean some summer journeys will either be moved to another day, another airport or be cancelled and we apologise to those whose travel plans are affected.   

“The airport will still be busy, as we are trying to get as many people away as possible, and we ask you to bear with us if it takes a little longer to check in, go through security or collect your bag than you are used to at Heathrow.  We ask passengers to help, by making sure they have completed all their COVID requirements online before they come to the airport, by not arriving earlier than 3 hours before their flight, by being ready for security with laptops out of bags and liquids, aerosols and gels in a sealed 100ml plastic bag, and by using e-gates in immigration where eligible. We are all recruiting as fast as we can and aim to return to the excellent service you should expect from the UK’s hub airport as soon as possible.”   

Comments (290)

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  • Sussex bantam says:

    Demand forecasting is one of the hardest things to do in business. Internal operations are largely under your control but knowing how many customers will turn up can cause real problems with even the best laid operational plans

    Airlines and airports have almost perfect vision of the upcoming demand in advance. This advance vision isn’t for the next few days, or even the next few weeks but months and months. Yet they still seem to live life on a state of constant surprise that people turn up to use the very expensive service they paid for months (even years) ago

    • Callum says:

      Though that assumes that they’re staffing for the peaks, which would make “demand forecasting” completely pointless.

      The issue isn’t that they didn’t foresee the demand, it’s that once they foresaw it they were unable/unwilling to spend the required amount to recruit and train enough staff to cope with it. Which is compounded by the outsourced nature of all the different components – e.g. the repercussions of a shortage of baggage handlers are mainly felt by the airline and airport, not the baggage handling company, removing the incentive to keep staff on standby for this happening.

      • Sussex bantam says:

        Nothing in running a business is easy (despite what internet commentators like me might say). However it does get much easier if you know what the demand is going to be.

        As you say – these factors were all known and management has therefore clearly decided (or incompetently not decided) to take action until now. It’s not a surprise that lots of people have turned up at the airport

        They deserve all the lawsuits that will hopefully be thrown at them.

    • memesweeper says:

      “Demand forecasting is one of the hardest things to do in business.”

      In my experience stopping your salespeople selling things your operations can’t deliver is damn-near impossible in most businesses.

      • Sussex bantam says:

        Funny – my problem was always getting operations to make the things people actually wanted to buy !!

    • John T says:

      It wasn’t so much forecasting what the demand would be post-pandemic, it was forecasting when the demand would return that was the difficult thing. We came extremely close to another national lockdown just after Xmas last year.
      All it would have taken a few months ago was another variant and those airlines ramping up staffing would be left with too many staff.

      • Lady London says:

        …and could conceivably have to ramp down again at some point. Though hopefully not

    • Norsksaint says:

      in some defence to any airport, they tend not to know airlines demand. in working with a supplier to a UK airport on some facial technology, I was surprised to learn that actually the airport has no idea if an aircraft is 30% or 100% full, and the airlines will not share this information. It means on any given day an airport doesn’t actually know the number of people who will pass through; and so they have had to build their own demand models.

  • The real Swiss Tony says:

    Feeling incredibly smug that I bagged an award seat on Saturday with QR for travel just after this ruling ends!

  • Colin MacKinnon says:

    Do I buy a bunch of refundable tickets now and hope to scoop the cancellation jackpots?

    • PeteM says:

      They won’t be paying out compensation as outside of the airline’s control.

      • Richie says:

        what about the second bit of recital 14 regarding reasonable measures?

        • meta says:

          You’d still have the right to re-route and duty of care. You could do well, but tickets are quite high at the moment anyway so not a good opportunity.

  • A says:

    Heathrow are doing a good job of deflecting the fact that they laid off 1000’s of staff at the start of the pandemic and imposed pay cuts of up 30% through fire and rehire on those that remained. Lack morale and inexperienced security staff is behind some of these cancellations.

  • Cats are best says:

    I’d felt a pang of regret a few months ago when my booked long ago LHR-ACE flight for next week switched back to LGW – no more FW check-in and shortcut into the lounge, plus the longer journey to/from the airport.

    Now I’m thinking, ‘phew!”

  • James F says:

    Heathrow has definitely been struggling from my somewhat limited experience.

    Back in March I got caught up in the insane check-in queues at T5 (Two hours in line, to get to the very front of the queue at the same time that all people on my flight were allowed to jump the queue). Two weeks ago, check-in at T5 was fine, but security took well over an hour for no discernible reason.

    As someone looking to chase statuse with BA and a TP earning year ending in early October, I’m frustrated that my realistic window of opportunity to get the remaining TP is one month

  • Oli says:

    BA will be very happy with this – they can now blame all the cancellations that they were going to do anyway on Heathrow and won’t even need to pay any compensation.

    • meta says:

      They’d still have to prove that the cancellation is due to extraordinary circumstance. The onus is on the airline under UK261.

      • will says:

        Having already cancelled 10000 flights last week to reduce capacity, and having had the government wade in and tell them to cancel, I’d say the case for showing extraordinary circumstances due to a melt down after a pandemic has a good case of qualifying for extraordinary,

  • Richie says:

    That’s like a supermarket landlord telling them to close between 19-24th Dec.

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